That requires defending seats Democrats are targeting, including those that became bluer in redistricting. To win the House majority, however, Republicans need to hold most of their own seats. In fact, Republicans have chances to flip all the races they’d need to win the House in two blue states alone – Oregon and New York – thanks to a combination of new maps and open seats. Nationally, redistricting benefited House Republicans overall, though things turned out better for Democrats than expected – just not everywhere. Those open seats are harder for Democrats to defend because they generally require outside groups to spend more than they would have had to with an incumbent in the race raising money. Interactive: Six states to watch for the 2022 midtermsĭemocratic retirements opened new opportunities across the map, including in places such as Rhode Island, giving House Republicans another viable district to try to regain a foothold in New England after being wiped out in 2018.

Underscoring Democrats’ defensive posture, 9 of the 10 House races seeing the most ad spending in the final week feature vulnerable incumbent Democrats. But that’s also a reflection of the gains they made in 2020 the GOP needs to reach even deeper into Biden territory to find Democratic-held seats they can go after. In part because of those national conditions, Republicans are also targeting some districts that Biden would have won by double digits under the new lines. Although these contests take place in 435 individual districts, they tend to be more nationalized affairs since candidates have less defined brands than senators. Republicans also have history on their side, since a new president’s party often loses seats in the midterms – especially a president with approval ratings like Joe Biden’s.Īll of those tailwinds are easier for the GOP to take advantage of in House races. Wade injected a heavy dose of uncertainty into the political landscape this summer, the economy and inflation remain the most pressing concerns for voters, a dynamic that plays into Republican attacks on the party in power. Even after the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. The backdrop to these individual races is a national environment that would appear to be a boon to the GOP.

Gop stands for grab